2012年6月25日 星期一

新階段, 新開始。


不經不覺就荒廢了這網誌近9個月了, 本想藉此記錄自己在投資及創業上的點滴和思想體會。但意想不到竟在這BLOG成立兩星期後, 我創業的第一及第二個公司都相繼遇上了大轉變 -- 一個有拍擋退股要重組公司, 一個我選擇蝕讓退出。這段日子的起伏都消耗自己很多的心力, 令到自己也無額外的精神和心情去管理這個BLOG。

現在大都總算告一段落, 心情也可以重新調整, 可以準備再次出發, 檢視過去這些經驗, 迎接新開始, 更上一層樓。

至於這兩個創業的經歷和體會, 我會整理好再後補Post出來跟網友分享。

2011年9月26日 星期一

Presenting The Mother Of All European Bailout Flowcharts

Earlier we presented the flowchart of the first part of the Eurozone endgame. While satisfactory, many immediately clamored: "what is part two?" Prompted by this surge in intellectual curiosity, John Lohman has risen to meet the challenge of what the Eurozone's Biggest, Baddest, Sexiest Motherf#%$^* Flow Chart looks like. It needs no commentary, and since it also really ties the ponzi room together, we hope nobody micturates upon it until the plane crashes into the mountain. That said, we do have an accounting question: is "ass rape" a credit or a debit?



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/presenting-mother-all-european-bailout-flowcharts

"We're Going To Need A Bigger Flowchart": Presenting The Schematic Of Part 1 Of The European Endgame

Still confused by the doomed endgame in the 21st century Greek tragedy? Have no fear: here is the BBC (which today is two out of two for useful information)with a flowchart of Greek endgame. With apologies to the optimists, who think there may be a happy ending here, here are the only 5 possible outcomes: 1) Pyrrhic Victory; 2) Depression; 3) Moral Hazard; 4) Political Turmoil and 5) Global Meltdown. In this context, it becomes all too obvious why stocks are surging...
From the BBC:
The "Troika" of lenders - the European Union, International Monetary
Fund and European Central Bank - say Greece must take more painful steps
to cut its borrowing.
But Greece faces riots and mass protests on the streets of Athens.
The government could lose its grip on parliament - only 155 of 300 MPs
backed the last round of austerity in June.
At stake is the next 8bn euro tranche of bailout money, which Greece
desperately needs to avoid total crisis.
Starting from the top, follow the decision tree to decide what happens
next.
And visually:



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/were-going-need-bigger-flowchart-presenting-schematic-part-1-european-endgame

瑞士人民黨考虑瑞郎回到金本位

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/swiss-parliament-to-discuss-gold-franc-2011-07-07

瑞士央行意图压低瑞郎,出现巨额亏损,之后瑞士人民党就希望限制瑞士央行的自主权,计划于8月中旬发起创制权投票,为此收集签名。该党要求瑞士央行停止进一步出售银行资产,并将瑞士在国外的黄金储备运回本国存储,不允许黄金占总资产比例下降至20%以下。同时还提议瑞士退出国际货币基金组织。

虽然金法郎被提上日程,但立法的通过则不是件易事,需要瑞士修宪,但瑞士向来小心谨慎。如果该议案被驳回,则可能在2012年中期进行全民公决。


新的金瑞郎,含金量为0.1g(0.0032ozt),按当前价格仅需要5法郎就能购买。


瑞士持有大量的黄金储备,人均黄金储备超过6000美元,是美国的六倍。但瑞士人民党认为这还不够.


http://xperialau.blogspot.com/2011/09/blog-post_5139.html

蜥蜴人敵基督將是一個從地獄來的變形獸


http://autumnson-nwo.blogspot.com/2010/07/blog-post_8719.html#bn-forum-1-1-3202415878/7773/0/show/blog-post_8719.html
那 時 候 有 偉 人 在 地 上 、 後 來   神 的 兒 子 們 、 和 人 的 女 子 們 交 合 生 子 、 那 就 是 上 古 英 武 有 名 的 人 。
耶 和 華 見 人 在 地 上 罪 惡 很 大 、 終 日 所 思 想 的 盡 都 是 惡
創 世 紀 6:4-5


必讀:世三戰和撒旦教徒的新世界秩序
“第三次世界大戰必須被煽動,在政治猶太復國主義者和伊斯蘭世界的領導人之間,由光明會的”新社“造成的分歧中提取利益。戰爭必須以這樣一種方式進行,伊斯蘭教(穆斯林阿拉伯世界)和政治猶太復國主義(以色列國)共同地毀滅對方。與此同時,其它國家再一次在這個議題上分裂,將被迫使去鬥爭,直至一點在物質、道德、精神和經濟上完全精疲力竭 ...我們將解除虛無主義者和無神論者的束縛,我們將引發可怕的社會災難,它的恐怖將完完全全地清楚顯示絕對無神論、野蠻起源和最血腥的騷動對國家的影響,隨即在每一個地方的市民,不得不防衛他們 自己以對抗世界少數的革命家,將消滅這些文明的毀壞者和大眾對基督教不再抱幻想,他們的自然神論的精神,從那一刻不再有指南針或方向,為理想焦慮,但不知去哪裡給予崇拜,他們將收到真光,透過純教條的路西法的宇宙性顯現,最後在公眾的眼光中帶出(註:爬蟲外星人現身??)這顯現將產生反動派的運動,繼而是基督教和無神論的毀滅,兩者都在同一時間被征服和滅絕。“
-Albert Pike and Three World Wars
信有外星人的專家及有關太空機構,窮五十年仍未聯絡得上任何外星民族,一切只靠個'信'字;反而地球上數十年來都有接觸外星人的報告,撇除部份講大話及妄想症個案,及光明會透過爪牙New Age的靈媒神棍,和有關人仕製造的佈局及虛假陳述,所謂但沒有足夠證據的外星人目擊仍然眾多,難以完全推翻,為何會這樣?
綜合看過及收集的眾多資料,我也相信他們的存在,但不如一般連外星人也沒見過的UFO專家的估估吓說法。對我來說,UFO是存在的,但衹是秘密勢力在測試尼古拉特斯拉幾十年前已發現的無重力科技。
至於外星人,我只見到兩類,第一種是上圖的黄金人,身高七至十呎,亦稱為巨人,如上創世記所述,乃'神 的 兒 子 們'(或天使們)在世'和 人 的 女 子 們 交 合 生 子'的偉人後代;另一種則是專家們所說的蜥蜴人(爬蟲人)、灰人、Annunaki.....等等,個人認為前兩者是撒旦/Baphomet在世與人類及動物雜交的數代子祠,不同對像有不同樣貌,相信現在為數不會少;Annunaki則仍在研究中。
大審判來到之前,就會如上述光明會佈的局那樣,在三戰各國鬥得筋疲力竭、基督徒被無神論者和虛無主義者大肆批鬥後信仰崩潰時,他們就會坐着研究經年的UFOs從天空出現,打著外星人的身份作全球電視直播,要來拯救人類和地球,並對世人宣稱宇宙並無上帝及耶穌也不會再來!如果你是教徒,經歷完不願植入獸印被政府趕到絕路的時刻,再被無政府主義者的批鬥迫害而仍未放棄信仰,到此地步收到這班所謂的外星人所作的宣佈,人類史上及末世的最大騙局下,你仍能堅持嗎?!相信不能,除非你在被迫害時已殉道,因為最後只剩下少量十四萬四千未植入獸印的,會追隨上帝作最後一戰,你能否是其中一人嗎?
至於他們現在在那裡?在類似這樣、但仍未發現的地底:
空心地球:夢幻之地的證據(必看!)
或再看看這篇目擊帖文美國道西地底外星網路如是真的,會是和其它所謂的外星人綁架敘述有關,被綁者都被綁到這基地作實驗或宰割,他們還以為上了太空某個星球或某架飛船母艦。
這類基地可能多於一個,所謂外星人,早已在地球上,目擊者早已見到,他們以為撒旦的雜交後代就是外星人。
對外星人有興趣的請放心,現在衹是未到適當時候讓大家見到,當錫安長老會暨光明會準備好全球統治前,全球傳媒都會大肆報導,美國政府或總統會作官式揭露,當所有愚人都相信和習慣的時候,蛇形或蜥蜴形的撒旦子女,就會以外星人身份和大家相聚了!



(R.R.) The History Of Reptilian Satanism:The Nibiru Connection
(RR)蜥蜴人撒旦的歷史: Nibiru的關係
西元2008年07月09日



(R.R.) The Reptilian Antichrist Will Be A ShapeShifter From Hell PT 1
(RR)蜥蜴人敵基督將是一個從地獄來的變形獸 第一部份

共濟會與羅富齊(Rothschild)

共济会阴谋统治世界吗?
http://www.wyzxsx.com/Article/Class20/200805/40637.html

百年奇书-锡安长老会绝密纪要之(1-24)
http://www.wyzxsx.com/Article/Class20/201005/149153.html

高盛(羅富齊的[或譯:羅斯柴爾德])如何接管世界

How Goldman Sachs (Rothschild's) took over the worldMonday, April 13, 2009

Well they are the most powerful firm on Wallstreet but actually they are an outlet of the Rothschild's who have spread their power under different names into this century and the prior one. They create new entities to hide the web the have created of which the Bilderberger is one and Soros is another. The 30 mil. think tank I wrote about in an earlier post is the brain of the Obama administration and his closest advisers are all from the Rothshild boys from RUBIN, SUMMERS, VOLCKER and second tier next generation breed like Geithner. Emanuel and many more.
它們在華爾街是最強大的公司,但實際上它們是羅富齊的出口,羅氏在本世紀及上一個以不同的名字已擴散其權力。他們創造新的實體以隱藏他們創建的蛛網,其中彼爾德伯格是一個而索羅斯是另一個。那三千萬 智庫在我以前的貼文寫過,是奧巴馬政府的大腦和他最親密的顧問,全都來自羅富齊男孩魯賓、薩默斯、沃爾克和二線下一代如蓋特納。伊曼紐爾和許多。
Rockefeller's,Ford the Bush family belongs to them as the Clinton's work for them. One very easy proof is the remaining official Rothschild's fortune is petty cash compared to my calculation how much the fortunes of them should be worth easily in the trillion league. Compared to the pathetic list Forbes publishes every year about Gates and Buffett who are also members of the Club. Imagine it like the middle ages with kings and lords who share one big interest and we are close to the real picture. The idea of democracy is the Matrix cover to run their business as it is easier to screw with people as long as they think they have a saying to what is going on. The list below gives some ideas but there are far more names and they are not only from Goldman they have different breeding organisations like the IMF and Worldbank.
洛克菲勒,福特,布殊家族屬於他們的,而克林頓則為他們工作。

Excerpt

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/how-goldman-sachs-took-over-the-world-873869.html

They are well-credentialed, partly by design. From its beginning when the German immigrant Marcus Goldman began discounting IOUs among the diamond merchants of New York in the 1870s, Goldman Sachs has always known about the power of the network of influence. Goldman hires former politicians and civil servants, as readily as it supplies them.

And then there is simply the intellectual quality of the employees, many hired as much youngster men via a gruelling interview process, and then forged in the fire of 17-hour work days.

With Goldman Sachs at the heart of Wall Street, and Wall Street at the heart of the US economy, few expects its power to wane. Indeed, The New York Times columnist David Brooks noted that Goldman Sachs employees have given more money to Barack Obama's campaign for president than workers of any other employer in the US. "Over the past few years, people from Goldman Sachs have assumed control over large parts of the federal government," Brooks noted grimly. "Over the next few they might just take over the whole darn thing."

John Thornton From his post as professor and director of global leadership at Tsinghua University in Beijing, the former Goldman Sachs co-chief operating officer John Thornton has become a highly-influential figure in the developing business and poltical inter-relations between the US and China. He was Goldman's boss in Asia in the mid-Nineties and remains well connected in the East and the West.

Duncan Niederauer Wall Streeters joked about a Goldman Sachs "takeover" of the New York Stock Exchange. Hank Paulson, the Goldman boss on the NYSE board, moved to oust the chairman, Dick Grasso, and recommended the then chief operating officer of Goldman, John Thain, as Mr Grasso's replacement. Mr Thain modernised the exchange as demanded by Goldman, and Mr Thain's old Goldman deputy, Duncan Niederauer, is in charge.

Jon CorzineThe former co-chief executive of Goldman went into full-time politics in 1999, having lost the internal power struggle that preceded the company's stock-market flotation in 1999. He has been governor of New Jersey since 2006, having spent the previous six years in the US Senate. His 2000 Senate election campaign was then the most expensive ever in the US, and Corzine spent $62m of his own money.

Joshua BoltenFor five years until 1999, Mr Bolten served as director of legal affairs for Goldman based in London, effectively making him the bank's chief lobbyist to the EU. The Republican lawyer aided George Bush's 2000 election campaign, helped co-ordinate policy in the White House and has been the President's chief of staff since 2006.

Paul DeightonThe man heading London's planning for the 2012 Olympic Games, Paul Deighton amassed a fortune estimated at over £100m during his two decades at Goldman Sachs, where he had been one of its most powerful investment bankers.

Robert RubinA US Treasury secretary under Bill Clinton, Mr Rubin could once again emerge as a powerful figure in Washington if Barack Obama wins the presidency, since he has maintained his influence on Democrat politics. Mr Rubin reached the second-highest rung at Goldman, becoming co-chief operating officer before joining the US government in 1993.

Gavyn DaviesThe ex-chairman of the BBC still has the ear of Gordon Brown, to whom he has been a good friend and informal adviser. He is married to the Prime Minister's aide Sue Nye. Mr Davies spent 15 years as an economist at Goldman. He was commissioned to report on the future funding of the BBC by Mr Brown in 1999. Two years later, he was poached to chair it.

Jim CramerThis former Goldman trader is, without question, the most influential stock pundit in the US. Hectoring and shouting his investment advice nightly on his CNBC show, Mad Money, he routinely moves share prices. His primal scream against the Federal Reserve ("They know nothing") was a YouTube sensation last year, as the central bank refused to lower interest rates to ease the pain of the credit crisis on Wall Street.

Robert ZoellickGoldman provided a lucrative home to Robert Zoellick, the neo-conservative Republican, between the time he quit as Condoleezza Rice's deputy at the State Department in 2006 (having not secured the job he coveted as Treasury Secretary, when it went to Hank Paulson) and his appointment last year as head of the World Bank. At Goldman he had acted as head of international affairs, a kind of global ambassador and networker-in-chief.

Mario DraghiThe head of the Italian central bank is another example of the revolving door between Goldman and public service. Mr Draghi had been an academic economist, an executive at the World Bank and a director-general of the Italian treasury before joining Goldman as a partner in 2002. He is becoming a significant figure in the response to the credit crisis, chairing the financial stability forum of central banks, finance ministries and regulators.

Malcolm TurnbullTreasurer for the opposition Liberal Party, Mr Turnbull is one of the fastest-rising politicians in Australia. He was the aggressive advocate who took on and beat the British Government in the Spycatcher trial of the former MI5 agent Peter Walker, but he then pursued a career in business and ran Goldman Australia from 1997 to 2001, before jumping in to politics to serve as environment minister under John Howard.

Hank PaulsonCometh the hour, cometh the man. President George Bush must be delighted he lured a reluctant Hank Paulson away from his $38m-a-year job as Goldman Sachs chief executive in 2006, just in time to deal with the Wall Street crisis that has engulfed the entire US economy. The bird-watching enthusiast had been a surprising choice as Treasury secretary, since his environmentalism was at odds with much of Bush's policy.
http://behind-the-matrix.blogspot.com/2009/04/how-goldman-sachs-rothschilds-took-over.html


http://autumnson-nwo.blogspot.com/2010/02/ufo-3.html#bn-forum-1-1-3202415878/7773/0/show/ufo-3.html

石林 金銀兩市 一雨成秋


Screamed Liquidation——尖叫的清算,外國評論者用這個詞語來形容上周金融市場的市況。該周美股下跌6.41%,再試今年最低水平;CRB商品期貨指數下跌8.40%,再創今年新低。黃金則跌8.41%,表現變為遜於美國30年期債券,金價對該債價的比率從較早前的歷來高峰的13.41急促地下降到11.51。白銀更出現23.57%的巨大跌幅,回復到今年年初時的價位水平。

現在點算一下總得失,今年到目前為止,30年債價晉升冠軍,升幅為18.22%;黃金居第二,升幅仍有16.93%。今年一度十分耀眼的白銀被打回原形,現只剩下0.46%的升幅。餘則乏善足陳,美元依然錄得0.67%的跌幅,美股跌幅為6.96%,CRB指數跌幅更為9.29%。至於非美元(組成美滙指數的權重外幣)至今仍錄得0.81%的升幅。

不妨用「一雨成秋」來描述最近天氣乃至金融市場的變化。上周本港經歷一場短暫「黃雨」,秋意突現。而聯邦儲備局推出OT(Operation Twist,扭曲操作),取代不少人期望的QE(量化寬鬆),則令全球市場登時變色。

長短債息比率滾落

石林雖然是個黃金牛市未完派,但一向從心裏不喜歡高昂的金價,且在今年6月間已提到聯儲局將無「正式的」QE3推出。故此不擬評論OT和QE兩者的孰優孰劣的問題,但應承認事前對市場就此而產生的失望情緒估計不足。

其實所謂OT,本質上是屬於再膨脹政策的一種,亦可算是「隱含的QE3」,操作上是聯儲局在維持現有資產負債表規模的前提下,將到期資金投資於年期較長的國債,從而壓低孳息率曲線的長端。這對金價來說是無礙於長線,但有礙於短期,因為它扭曲了市場對通脹正常的和合理的預期。

聯儲局的OT操作實際上早在正式宣布前已施行,美長債息對短債息的比率已從高峰滾落。例如30年債息對1年債息的比率,從8月的高峰39.33滾落到上周的28.90;10年債息對2年債息的比率,則從本月中的高峰11.56滾落到上周的8.00。一般而言,金價變動是與上述比率曲線變化大致同向,現時兩者同向下急墜。

此外,市場因無QE3,通縮心態加強並令美元變成獨好;另一方面,經濟二次探底的憂慮同告加深,這些也都是金銀價格回跌的重要原因。

市勢還會反覆下試

形勢變化使熊方在金銀兩市佔了上風,金市行情亦大致如上期說的典型熊方看法的模式發展。上周金價止步於1827元(美元.下同),大規模清算發生,1762元至1703元的重要支持位相繼失守,直插到1629元後才微彈到1657.2元收市。

金市經此一猛跌,技術上使1703元至1720元地帶之上的價位區域成為一個頭部,同時使稍後的反彈受制於這個地帶。市勢還會進一步下試,較有可能的低位支持區是在1540元至1560元的水平。至於短期,或會反彈到1682元附近而難重越1700元關口;但因短期跌幅頗大,故亦估計暫不致低於1608元。另外,目前圖表形態並非是典型雙頭走勢(時間間隔過短),故對金價跌至1484元的估計個人有所保留。

至於銀價上周最低插落至29.8元,這使個人早前基於「A-B-C調整的C不低A」的分析前提受到破壞。

銀市走勢實際也在變劣,回試2008年高位21.3元水平也並非沒有可能,但中短期相信不致低於26.35元,37元成為巨大的回升阻力;短期估計在29.4元至32.3元之間上落。金銀兩市潛在利好因素是業者淨沽倉量顯降。

目前金市究竟是像1979年,還是像2008年,此問題仍在爭議。個人則抱牛市未完的態度,因貨幣與當局仍不可信。

Smart money knows the stock market is finished. Get prepared!"- BBC News

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3ddIJajQ0w

重點在2:10"後, 粗略之意思如下:
1. 經濟危機就像CANCER一樣, 它只會不斷增長, 要快做好準備......
2. 不要妄想(美國)政府能解決任何問題, 統治世界的不是美國政府, 而是「高盛」!!
3. 投資者首要學的是如何在跌市時能保護資產的價值。
4. 現在只是開始, 投資者要準快立即行動, 迎戰面前至少維持12個月的股市/貨幣危機。

H按與P按之風險,

以防萬一, 各位上左車的朋友要小心做好風險準備啦!

在過去幾年,香港人新做按揭,大多數是採用H按,而將物業轉按者,亦棄P按用H按,但是大家不明白H按風險,若果現在樓市經歷2008年情況,樓市急速下跌的機會是非常之大。

匯豐在按揭利息上調,而王冬勝先生亦說,新做按揭以P按為主,亦可以說這是撥亂反正。我個人認為,H按所負擔風險,危機尚未解除,一定要將H按市場佔有率降低至50%以下,而採用H按的人士完全明白其風險,亦有能力負擔其風險,這時,H按所隱藏的風險才可以說是解除。

一個置業人士若果採用H按,該項貸款便不屬於個人置業貸款,而是屬於商業貸款,但銀行從業員很多時為爭取生意,並沒有清楚解釋當中分別。這樣說﹕「若果按揭人採用P按,他只要在未來歲月裡根據按揭合約所訂的分期付款辦法,依期還款,銀行是不會採取任何行動,要求提早還款或者增加抵押品。所以,採取該類按揭的人士只需謹記一件事,就是「準時還款」,大致上可以安枕無憂」。

若果採取H按,主動權便不是在按揭人手裡,就算他們能夠準時還款,但如果物業市場急速下滑,銀行便可以根據貸款合約中所釐訂的條款,要求貸款人償還部份貸款,以符合金管要求的資產,負債比率。所以,樓市下挫,便會有人被要求償還部份貸款,若果按揭人未能償還,唯有將物業出售,或者任由物業變成銀主盤,由銀行處理。如是者,一浪低於一浪,做成骨牌效應。

還款主動權亦未必會在銀行手裡,根據貸款合約,抵押物業每年要做一個物業估值報告,若果物業價值沒有大幅下降,銀行與貸款人相安無事,但如果物業價值在估價時被大幅低估,銀行在別無他法下一定要向貸款人追討一部份貸款,俗稱「差額」,用以符合資產負債比率,若貸款人未有能力償還貸款,一樣要出售該物業或者任由該物業變成銀主盤。

換句話說,真正的主動權是在測量師手裡,他們的估價報告可以左右樓市走勢,若果他們如2008年一樣,有默契地將樓價估值大幅下調,而現在採用H按的人士,未必能夠像2008年的專業投資者,早已準備足夠儲備度過難關。這樣,樓市不大「冧」幾希矣。

當日,銀行為了多做金融產品生意,向有物業的人士借出款項購買金融產品,由於銀行從金融產品所得利潤是相當高,故此不介意將按揭息口降低,並且以同業拆息為基準。這樣,同業拆息按揭H按便氾濫,每一個人申請按揭貸款都會採用H按,他們實在不知其中會涉及的風險,就算向他們推介的銀行職員亦未必知曉,可幸未釀成大災害。唯今之計,是將H按的人推回P按,既然現在兩種利息分別不大,新做按揭的人士亦不會介意採用P按。而已做按揭的人士,由於物業有相當升幅,資產負債比率亦處於一個安全水平,就算樓市下滑,測量師大幅減低樓價估值,暫時來說,樓市仍然是安全。不過,採用H按的人一定要有一些資金,用以應付銀行他日追收差額的要求,又或者,索性將H按轉往P按,一了百了。
http://hk.realestate.yahoo.com/column_content.html?author=PHK_TML&com&id=14420