http://www.zerohedge.com/news/presenting-mother-all-european-bailout-flowcharts
2011年9月26日 星期一
Presenting The Mother Of All European Bailout Flowcharts
Earlier we presented the flowchart of the first part of the Eurozone endgame.
While satisfactory, many immediately clamored: "what is part
two?" Prompted by this surge in intellectual curiosity, John Lohman has
risen to meet the challenge of what the Eurozone's Biggest, Baddest, Sexiest
Motherf#%$^* Flow Chart looks like. It needs no commentary, and since it also
really ties the ponzi room together, we hope nobody micturates upon it until the
plane crashes into the mountain. That said, we do have an accounting question:
is "ass rape" a credit or a debit?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/presenting-mother-all-european-bailout-flowcharts
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/presenting-mother-all-european-bailout-flowcharts
"We're Going To Need A Bigger Flowchart": Presenting The Schematic Of Part 1 Of The European Endgame
Still confused by the doomed endgame in the 21st century Greek tragedy? Have
no fear: here is the BBC (which today is two out of two for useful
information)with a flowchart of Greek endgame. With apologies to the optimists,
who think there may be a happy ending here, here are the only 5 possible
outcomes: 1) Pyrrhic Victory; 2) Depression; 3) Moral Hazard; 4)
Political Turmoil and 5) Global Meltdown. In this context, it becomes
all too obvious why stocks are surging...
From the BBC:
The "Troika" of lenders - the European Union, International Monetary
Fund
and European Central Bank - say Greece must take more painful steps
to cut
its borrowing.
But Greece faces riots and mass protests on the streets of Athens.
The government could lose its grip on parliament - only 155 of 300
MPs
backed the last round of austerity in June.
At stake is the next 8bn euro tranche of bailout money, which
Greece
desperately needs to avoid total crisis.
Starting from the top, follow the decision tree to decide what
happens
next.
And visually:
Fund and European Central Bank - say Greece must take more painful steps
to cut its borrowing.
But Greece faces riots and mass protests on the streets of Athens.
The government could lose its grip on parliament - only 155 of 300 MPs
backed the last round of austerity in June.
At stake is the next 8bn euro tranche of bailout money, which Greece
desperately needs to avoid total crisis.
Starting from the top, follow the decision tree to decide what happens
next.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/were-going-need-bigger-flowchart-presenting-schematic-part-1-european-endgame
瑞士人民黨考虑瑞郎回到金本位
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/swiss-parliament-to-discuss-gold-franc-2011-07-07
瑞士央行意图压低瑞郎，出现巨额亏损，之后瑞士人民党就
虽然金法郎被提上日程，但立法的通过则不是件易事，需要
http://xperialau.blogspot.com/2011/09/blog-post_5139.html
瑞士央行意图压低瑞郎，出现巨额亏损，之后瑞士人民党就
虽然金法郎被提上日程，但立法的通过则不是件易事，需要
新的金瑞郎，含金量为0.1g(0.0032ozt)，
瑞士持有大量的黄金储备，人均黄金储备超过6000美元
http://xperialau.blogspot.com/2011/09/blog-post_5139.html
Smart money knows the stock market is finished. Get prepared!"- BBC News
重點在2:10"後, 粗略之意思如下:
1. 經濟危機就像CANCER一樣, 它只會不斷增長, 要快做好準備......
2. 不要妄想(美國)政府能解決任何問題, 統治世界的不是美國政府, 而是「高盛」!!
3. 投資者首要學的是如何在跌市時能保護資產的價值。
4. 現在只是開始, 投資者要準快立即行動, 迎戰面前至少維持12個月的股市/貨幣危機。
9·29希臘債務危機迎來歐洲 審判日
周五，在歐洲央行官員改口承認希臘違約的可能性后，希臘已越來越處境堪憂。當歐元區面臨可能解散危險的時候，9月29日更成為了拯救希臘的關鍵時刻。屆時，德國議會將投票決定是否允許歐洲金融穩定基金（EFSF）在二級市場購買主權債券，并將其規模從目前的2500億歐元擴充到4400億歐元。
EFSF通過成疑
德國議會曾表示，將於9月29日就EFSF規模改變進行投票。此前德國議會已經將此項備受矚目的投票推遲了一周，而EFSF改革為歐元區結束債務危機最新方案的一部分。然而，9月19日，默克爾領導的黨派在柏林選舉中敗北，這一消息像一盆冰冷的水毫不留情的淋在投資者的身上。
據報導，在此次的德國柏林市選舉中，德國總理默克爾領導的基督教民主聯盟（CDU）以23.5%的選票不敵德國中間偏左黨派社會民主黨（SPD），這是2011年7次地方選舉中CDU第6次失利。
柏林選舉敗北，使默克爾領導的中間偏右聯盟處境更加不利。9月29日，德國議會將就賦予歐洲金融穩定基金（EFSF）更多權力投票表決，屆時默克爾會面對更多反對者。9月底德國議會投票表決歐元區救助基金EFSF的形勢越發堪憂。
《每日經濟新聞》記者了解到，由於德國銀行業協會反對EFSF資金直接放貸給接受救助國家的銀行，且EFSF修訂草案規定，在歐元區成員國政府無力對本國銀行業進行資本重組并且這一情形已經威脅到歐元區穩定的前提下，EFSF才可以對歐元區政府提供放貸，但EFSF不能直接向接受救助國家的銀行進行放貸。另外，EFSF在二級市場購買重債國債券之前，需要重債國政府提出申請。這在一定程度上降低了EFSF救助措施的及時性，EFSF在二級市場購買國債的及時性可能會低於歐洲央行。
資料顯示，歐洲央行已經在過去的16個月內從二級市場中，購買重債國國債總額達1155億歐元。而如果在9月18日的大選中，默克爾如愿勝出的話，德國議會對新的EFSF運行過程中的影響力，會增強默克爾所領導的基督民主聯盟議員要求議會進一步加強對新修訂EFSF運行過程中的影響力。但是，目前的敗北，EFSF方案的通過似乎已經找不到更強有力的支撐了。
此外，一則希臘違約的最有力的消息紛紛被各大網站轉載。據9月23日路透社報導，歐洲央行理事會成員KlaasKnot在接受荷蘭媒體采訪時表示，央行正在研究希臘違約的可能性，“這是可能性之一，我沒有說希臘不會破產。”他在采訪中說，“很長時間以來，我都相信希臘不會出現違約。然而，從希臘傳來的消息時不時讓人感到沮喪。”
銀河證券研究部認為，歐元是德國獲得歐洲大市場的工具，給德國帶來了發展腹地，在給其他國家帶來發展的同時帶來了更大的債務，從貨幣與財政統一的角度來看，德國理應對其他國家實施財政上的轉移支付，德國至少應該部分地承擔其他國家的債務，而從法律意義上看，德國人并沒有義務為其他國家承擔債務，因為德國不欠其他國家的錢，沒有直接救助義務，只有當其他國家出現重大問題的時候，解決歐元區財政不協調問題的制度性方案才有可能出臺，因此，歐元區必然還有大的震盪，必須等待審判，然后才能找到復原的力量。
市場或再劇烈波動
眾所周知，為確保歐洲金融穩定，早在2011年1月12日歐盟《年度增長調查》中就明確提出了提高EFSF的資金規模和救助措施的有效性。而且，7月21日歐洲領導人峰會上通過了二次救助希臘的計劃，并且再一次提出將提高EFSF的靈活性等，但由於7月21日會議決議內容豐富，初步達成的僅僅是一個大致的救助框架，具體措施的推出需要進一步的磋商，并且有待歐元區各成員國政府和議會的審批。而為了響應歐元區的難兄難弟的呼救，德國默克爾政府8月31日通過了EFSF修改草案，修訂草案將EFSF的資金規模由2500億歐元提高至4400億歐元，德國提供的資金由1230億歐元提高至2110億歐元。
然而，德國國內對使用納稅人的資金大規模救助重債國問題存在爭議。一旦EFSF沒能如期通過，對希臘而言將意味著判處“死刑”。
這是因為希臘、意大利等國家面臨較大的債務違約風險，而一旦不能獲得金融系統或者歐洲穩定機制的資金，它們將會債務違約，歐洲各國銀行面臨巨大的債務壓力，銀行將出現擠兌風潮，面臨破產風險。這將導致市場對歐元區徹底失去信任，最終導致歐元崩潰。這對於全球經濟復甦將是巨大的打擊。
http://news.cnyes.com/Content/20110926/KDZ9EDUQTZOOI.shtml
EFSF通過成疑
據報導，在此次的德國柏林市選舉中，德國總理默克爾領導的基督教民主聯盟（CDU）以23.5%的選票不敵德國中間偏左黨派社會民主黨（SPD），這是2011年7次地方選舉中CDU第6次失利。
柏林選舉敗北，使默克爾領導的中間偏右聯盟處境更加不利。9月29日，德國議會將就賦予歐洲金融穩定基金（EFSF）更多權力投票表決，屆時默克爾會面對更多反對者。9月底德國議會投票表決歐元區救助基金EFSF的形勢越發堪憂。
《每日經濟新聞》記者了解到，由於德國銀行業協會反對EFSF資金直接放貸給接受救助國家的銀行，且EFSF修訂草案規定，在歐元區成員國政府無力對本國銀行業進行資本重組并且這一情形已經威脅到歐元區穩定的前提下，EFSF才可以對歐元區政府提供放貸，但EFSF不能直接向接受救助國家的銀行進行放貸。另外，EFSF在二級市場購買重債國債券之前，需要重債國政府提出申請。這在一定程度上降低了EFSF救助措施的及時性，EFSF在二級市場購買國債的及時性可能會低於歐洲央行。
資料顯示，歐洲央行已經在過去的16個月內從二級市場中，購買重債國國債總額達1155億歐元。而如果在9月18日的大選中，默克爾如愿勝出的話，德國議會對新的EFSF運行過程中的影響力，會增強默克爾所領導的基督民主聯盟議員要求議會進一步加強對新修訂EFSF運行過程中的影響力。但是，目前的敗北，EFSF方案的通過似乎已經找不到更強有力的支撐了。
此外，一則希臘違約的最有力的消息紛紛被各大網站轉載。據9月23日路透社報導，歐洲央行理事會成員KlaasKnot在接受荷蘭媒體采訪時表示，央行正在研究希臘違約的可能性，“這是可能性之一，我沒有說希臘不會破產。”他在采訪中說，“很長時間以來，我都相信希臘不會出現違約。然而，從希臘傳來的消息時不時讓人感到沮喪。”
銀河證券研究部認為，歐元是德國獲得歐洲大市場的工具，給德國帶來了發展腹地，在給其他國家帶來發展的同時帶來了更大的債務，從貨幣與財政統一的角度來看，德國理應對其他國家實施財政上的轉移支付，德國至少應該部分地承擔其他國家的債務，而從法律意義上看，德國人并沒有義務為其他國家承擔債務，因為德國不欠其他國家的錢，沒有直接救助義務，只有當其他國家出現重大問題的時候，解決歐元區財政不協調問題的制度性方案才有可能出臺，因此，歐元區必然還有大的震盪，必須等待審判，然后才能找到復原的力量。
市場或再劇烈波動
眾所周知，為確保歐洲金融穩定，早在2011年1月12日歐盟《年度增長調查》中就明確提出了提高EFSF的資金規模和救助措施的有效性。而且，7月21日歐洲領導人峰會上通過了二次救助希臘的計劃，并且再一次提出將提高EFSF的靈活性等，但由於7月21日會議決議內容豐富，初步達成的僅僅是一個大致的救助框架，具體措施的推出需要進一步的磋商，并且有待歐元區各成員國政府和議會的審批。而為了響應歐元區的難兄難弟的呼救，德國默克爾政府8月31日通過了EFSF修改草案，修訂草案將EFSF的資金規模由2500億歐元提高至4400億歐元，德國提供的資金由1230億歐元提高至2110億歐元。
然而，德國國內對使用納稅人的資金大規模救助重債國問題存在爭議。一旦EFSF沒能如期通過，對希臘而言將意味著判處“死刑”。
這是因為希臘、意大利等國家面臨較大的債務違約風險，而一旦不能獲得金融系統或者歐洲穩定機制的資金，它們將會債務違約，歐洲各國銀行面臨巨大的債務壓力，銀行將出現擠兌風潮，面臨破產風險。這將導致市場對歐元區徹底失去信任，最終導致歐元崩潰。這對於全球經濟復甦將是巨大的打擊。
http://news.cnyes.com/Content/20110926/KDZ9EDUQTZOOI.shtml
2011年9月23日 星期五
Financial Warfare
Geithner seems to abhor austerity and sacrifice, preferring any strategy which keeps debt growing to fund the investment banking, security, prisons and war industries on which the American economy now depends for so much of its GDP.
- From “London Banker” Blog, link to full piece is here
It takes a PhD in economics not to be able to understand the obvious.
- Irving Kristol
Financial Warfare
Unfortunately, I spend a good portion of my day trying to get into the mind of a deranged, academic, conflicted and panicked central planner. In other words, I spend most of my day in the Bernank’s head. August 2011 was an extraordinarily important month in the history of the financial world. It is when I believe the “system” blew up for good. The sovereign rating of the United States was downgraded by Standard & Poors and although treasuries have rallied ever since, it was 100% the equivalent of someone yelling the “emperor has no clothes” and the world indeed noticed. It was also at this time that the European banking system and in reality the entire Euro project started to blow up. Equities plunged and gold soared. It was the worst of all scenarios for the Central Planner in Chief, the Bernank.
As all of you know, I think it is nearly impossible to make money in this market (if you want to call it that) unless you assume all things are gamed and manipulated. I think that if you are under the assumption that there is a free market and that there are rules when it comes to the government, the banks (Central and TBTF) then you can’t succeed because you are operating on an entirely false macro assumption. August absolutely scared the living daylights of the central planners and all of us in the “fight the Fed” camp knew that they would have to pull something together to exact revenge on those that are betting against them. One of the other things that happened in August that scared the living daylights out of the central planners was the massive flow of fiat money into what was perceived to be a “hard” fiat currency – the Swiss Franc. This provided these guys with the perfect opportunity to launch a massive counteroffensive in what has clearly become a gigantic Financial War. In what was an extremely well planned and aggressive move, the cabal of Western Central bankers convinced the Swiss to make the incredible announcement that they would print unlimited Francs to peg the currency at 1.20 to the dying euro.
You have to hand it to these guys. The move was a stroke of central planning genius. Not only did they destroy people with major long Franc positions versus virtually any other currency (the Franc went down 25% versus the dollar in a one month period and 20% versus the euro) which was a way for the central planners to extract a pound of flesh from those betting against them, but it also was just as much if not more so directed at the gold market. Let me explain. Anyone with a large long franc position also likely has a long gold position as they are (rather were) essentially the same macro bet. Such a massive move in a currency such as the franc would have been so unexpected and such an outlier event that it would have wrecked severe havoc on many portfolios. The central planners knew this and they used it to their advantage to stop gold in its tracks as it was headed to $2,000/oz and beyond. This was no coincidence. It was financial warfare. You MUST know your enemy to survive and win the war because the central planners can win battles but not the war.
Total Currency Chaos
What has ensued since the Swiss intervention has been nothing short of total currency chaos throughout the emerging markets world. Here are some numbers to put things in perspective. Since the beginning of August here this is how much various currencies has depreciated versus the U.S. dollar. The Brazilian real - 20%, the Indian rupee -13%, the Korean won -13%, the Mexican Peso -20%! I could go on, but you get the point. Now, I am not going to say that these currency moves were also caused deliberately by the central planners although I wouldn’t put it past them. More likely, they are the symptoms of a massive global economic slowdown and the view that the monetary policy in these countries will have to be loosened materially. However, is this an appropriate conclusion?
While current inflation data may be brushed off as yesterday’s news the figures have continued to come in pretty hot in the emerging markets. Moreover, the massive depreciation in these countries currencies lately has likely only made the inflation situation worse. For example, let’s take a look at the most important commodity to global economic growth, oil, in the currencies of these various markets.
Brent Crude in Mexican Pesos
Brent Crude in Indian Rupee
Brent Crude in Brazilian Real
Brent Crude in Swiss Francs
Those Charts are BAAAD
The point of the charts above is to show you that things aren’t as they seem. While crude oil in dollars has indeed come down, what is actually going on is a massive devaluation of emerging market currencies. This is why as you can see, oil is basically at the highs in the peso, rupee and real. While not at highs in francs it did jump a striking 35% in a month after the devaluation was announced. So the KEY point I am trying to make is that this is not 2008. Yes, we are looking at a pretty significant cyclical slowdown globally; what I would call a recession within a depression. However, what is happening is it is simply the emerging market currencies’ turn to devalue in the global fiat currency death spiral game. The fact that oil is at highs for these countries at this point in the cycle is absolutely devastating. Anyone “playing” overseas revenue names better revisit their thesis and fast. Luxury names are supposed to hold up on emerging markets growth? Please. Luxury names are commodities in 1H08. It is the same thing. I called that right and I am saying it here. I hear ALL the same arguments in that sector. It is not immune. It is not decoupling. It will crash.
Gold is Falling? Really??
Ok, so let’s take a step back from propaganda and look at what is really happening. Gold is down a little over $150/oz from the highs in U.S. dollars. That said, let’s look at gold in the currencies above that have recently experience devaluation.
Gold in Mexican Pesos
Gold in Brazilian Real
Gold in Indian Rupee
Gold in Swiss Franc
See, once again things aren’t as simple as they may seem. Gold is not falling, emerging market currencies have just been devalued. This is what might be expected within the current macro environment of general fiat currency death as the globe enters a recession within a depression. Things are going to be very, very choppy and I would be extremely cautious in all markets but physical precious metals should absolutely be accumulated on weakness. The system has already blown up and while that makes thing extra volatile and confusing, as JP Morgan said in 1912 “gold is money, everything else is credit.” It shall be seen to be true again.
Peace and wisdom,
Mike
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/financial-warfare
- From “London Banker” Blog, link to full piece is here
It takes a PhD in economics not to be able to understand the obvious.
- Irving Kristol
Financial Warfare
Unfortunately, I spend a good portion of my day trying to get into the mind of a deranged, academic, conflicted and panicked central planner. In other words, I spend most of my day in the Bernank’s head. August 2011 was an extraordinarily important month in the history of the financial world. It is when I believe the “system” blew up for good. The sovereign rating of the United States was downgraded by Standard & Poors and although treasuries have rallied ever since, it was 100% the equivalent of someone yelling the “emperor has no clothes” and the world indeed noticed. It was also at this time that the European banking system and in reality the entire Euro project started to blow up. Equities plunged and gold soared. It was the worst of all scenarios for the Central Planner in Chief, the Bernank.
As all of you know, I think it is nearly impossible to make money in this market (if you want to call it that) unless you assume all things are gamed and manipulated. I think that if you are under the assumption that there is a free market and that there are rules when it comes to the government, the banks (Central and TBTF) then you can’t succeed because you are operating on an entirely false macro assumption. August absolutely scared the living daylights of the central planners and all of us in the “fight the Fed” camp knew that they would have to pull something together to exact revenge on those that are betting against them. One of the other things that happened in August that scared the living daylights out of the central planners was the massive flow of fiat money into what was perceived to be a “hard” fiat currency – the Swiss Franc. This provided these guys with the perfect opportunity to launch a massive counteroffensive in what has clearly become a gigantic Financial War. In what was an extremely well planned and aggressive move, the cabal of Western Central bankers convinced the Swiss to make the incredible announcement that they would print unlimited Francs to peg the currency at 1.20 to the dying euro.
You have to hand it to these guys. The move was a stroke of central planning genius. Not only did they destroy people with major long Franc positions versus virtually any other currency (the Franc went down 25% versus the dollar in a one month period and 20% versus the euro) which was a way for the central planners to extract a pound of flesh from those betting against them, but it also was just as much if not more so directed at the gold market. Let me explain. Anyone with a large long franc position also likely has a long gold position as they are (rather were) essentially the same macro bet. Such a massive move in a currency such as the franc would have been so unexpected and such an outlier event that it would have wrecked severe havoc on many portfolios. The central planners knew this and they used it to their advantage to stop gold in its tracks as it was headed to $2,000/oz and beyond. This was no coincidence. It was financial warfare. You MUST know your enemy to survive and win the war because the central planners can win battles but not the war.
Total Currency Chaos
What has ensued since the Swiss intervention has been nothing short of total currency chaos throughout the emerging markets world. Here are some numbers to put things in perspective. Since the beginning of August here this is how much various currencies has depreciated versus the U.S. dollar. The Brazilian real - 20%, the Indian rupee -13%, the Korean won -13%, the Mexican Peso -20%! I could go on, but you get the point. Now, I am not going to say that these currency moves were also caused deliberately by the central planners although I wouldn’t put it past them. More likely, they are the symptoms of a massive global economic slowdown and the view that the monetary policy in these countries will have to be loosened materially. However, is this an appropriate conclusion?
While current inflation data may be brushed off as yesterday’s news the figures have continued to come in pretty hot in the emerging markets. Moreover, the massive depreciation in these countries currencies lately has likely only made the inflation situation worse. For example, let’s take a look at the most important commodity to global economic growth, oil, in the currencies of these various markets.
Brent Crude in Mexican Pesos
Brent Crude in Indian Rupee
Brent Crude in Brazilian Real
Brent Crude in Swiss Francs
Those Charts are BAAAD
The point of the charts above is to show you that things aren’t as they seem. While crude oil in dollars has indeed come down, what is actually going on is a massive devaluation of emerging market currencies. This is why as you can see, oil is basically at the highs in the peso, rupee and real. While not at highs in francs it did jump a striking 35% in a month after the devaluation was announced. So the KEY point I am trying to make is that this is not 2008. Yes, we are looking at a pretty significant cyclical slowdown globally; what I would call a recession within a depression. However, what is happening is it is simply the emerging market currencies’ turn to devalue in the global fiat currency death spiral game. The fact that oil is at highs for these countries at this point in the cycle is absolutely devastating. Anyone “playing” overseas revenue names better revisit their thesis and fast. Luxury names are supposed to hold up on emerging markets growth? Please. Luxury names are commodities in 1H08. It is the same thing. I called that right and I am saying it here. I hear ALL the same arguments in that sector. It is not immune. It is not decoupling. It will crash.
Gold is Falling? Really??
Ok, so let’s take a step back from propaganda and look at what is really happening. Gold is down a little over $150/oz from the highs in U.S. dollars. That said, let’s look at gold in the currencies above that have recently experience devaluation.
Gold in Mexican Pesos
Gold in Brazilian Real
Gold in Indian Rupee
Gold in Swiss Franc
See, once again things aren’t as simple as they may seem. Gold is not falling, emerging market currencies have just been devalued. This is what might be expected within the current macro environment of general fiat currency death as the globe enters a recession within a depression. Things are going to be very, very choppy and I would be extremely cautious in all markets but physical precious metals should absolutely be accumulated on weakness. The system has already blown up and while that makes thing extra volatile and confusing, as JP Morgan said in 1912 “gold is money, everything else is credit.” It shall be seen to be true again.
Peace and wisdom,
Mike
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/financial-warfare
Technical Perspectives: Global Markets Starting To Un-Hinge
Global Markets Starting to Un-Hinge
As this market has been feeling like a bubble waiting to find a pin as the wheels come off Fast and Furious, everything across the board is getting hammered from pillar to post and starting to scream out a major sell-off is coming to a market near you.
When the 2007/08 global recession started, the DJIA led the declines with the DAX following suit after. But this time those across the pond seem to be the dying canary in the coal mine. Today, the DAX is down 4.64% on the day and 32% from the highs of the year.
On a sign of weakness out of China through the 2mos low on their PMI, the Hang Seng closed down 4.85% on the day and is about to have its largest single weekly loss since 2009 while being down 28.5% for the year.
The DJIA is also getting crushed as it is now down 16.4% from the 2011 peak while also being on the verge of a single largest weekly point drop from an open to close basis.
What is ironic about all this is the DJIA, SPX, FTSE, and DAX are on the verge of making yearly lows and they all look vulnerable beyond belief. Basically the markets are starting to completely un-hinge and we suspect the wheels are coming off shortly (see chart below)
DAX
If anyone from the lineup above makes new lows for the year, this will likely increase the sell-off in global indices adding further negative sentiment to traders (as if they needed any more).
What is most interesting is from an Ichimoku perspective, all four of them are now below the weekly Kumo which is a very bearish sign for any one of them. When was the last time since 2001 we had all four below the weekly Kumo? Jan. 2008 and we all know what happened from there.
DJIA
SPX
FTSE
If one index was below the weekly Kumo, then that would be a bearish sign in regards to that specific index. But all four suggests contagion as it looks like we are on the verge of a massive sell-off in global indices which ironically is looking eerily like 2008 all over again.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/technical-perspectives-global-markets-starting-un-hinge
As this market has been feeling like a bubble waiting to find a pin as the wheels come off Fast and Furious, everything across the board is getting hammered from pillar to post and starting to scream out a major sell-off is coming to a market near you.
When the 2007/08 global recession started, the DJIA led the declines with the DAX following suit after. But this time those across the pond seem to be the dying canary in the coal mine. Today, the DAX is down 4.64% on the day and 32% from the highs of the year.
On a sign of weakness out of China through the 2mos low on their PMI, the Hang Seng closed down 4.85% on the day and is about to have its largest single weekly loss since 2009 while being down 28.5% for the year.
The DJIA is also getting crushed as it is now down 16.4% from the 2011 peak while also being on the verge of a single largest weekly point drop from an open to close basis.
What is ironic about all this is the DJIA, SPX, FTSE, and DAX are on the verge of making yearly lows and they all look vulnerable beyond belief. Basically the markets are starting to completely un-hinge and we suspect the wheels are coming off shortly (see chart below)
DAX
If anyone from the lineup above makes new lows for the year, this will likely increase the sell-off in global indices adding further negative sentiment to traders (as if they needed any more).
What is most interesting is from an Ichimoku perspective, all four of them are now below the weekly Kumo which is a very bearish sign for any one of them. When was the last time since 2001 we had all four below the weekly Kumo? Jan. 2008 and we all know what happened from there.
DJIA
SPX
FTSE
If one index was below the weekly Kumo, then that would be a bearish sign in regards to that specific index. But all four suggests contagion as it looks like we are on the verge of a massive sell-off in global indices which ironically is looking eerily like 2008 all over again.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/technical-perspectives-global-markets-starting-un-hinge
2011年9月22日 星期四
陶冬：瑞士央行干預瑞郎 恐引發貿易戰 全球一起成輸家
鉅亨網
9月6日瑞士央行宣布無限制購買流入的外匯，造成全球匯市劇烈騷動，陶冬認為此舉短期內雖穩定該國局勢，然長期效果卻未可知，且令其他國家更有理由拒絕本國貨幣升值，貨幣戰爭態勢倘若因此趨強，造成貿易戰爭，對全球金融穩定造成威脅。
http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/jw!ek8_sO6eFRP40o.CuFM-/article?mid=9249&prev=9254&next=9248&l=a&fid=28
9月6日瑞士央行宣布無限制購買流入的外匯，造成全球匯市劇烈騷動，陶冬認為此舉短期內雖穩定該國局勢，然長期效果卻未可知，且令其他國家更有理由拒絕本國貨幣升值，貨幣戰爭態勢倘若因此趨強，造成貿易戰爭，對全球金融穩定造成威脅。
以下是陶冬博客文章全文。
天堂變得越來越窄，天堂中的天使也越來越少。布列頓森林體系解體後，美元一直是避險的天堂，可是這個天使中的大姐大已經墮落，一隻腳懸在地獄的上方。瑞士法郎，曾經是央行信譽的典範、幣值的保證，可是這個天使也捱不住天堂裡的煩惱，徑直與魔鬼同居了。
9月6日瑞士國家銀行宣布，瑞郎以1：1.2的匯率牌價與歐元掛鉤，“無限量地購買流入的外匯”，務求穩定“被極度高估的”匯率。瑞士央行的舉動，乃近十年來最激進的匯率政策，短期內穩定住了本國貨幣，不過其長期效果仍有待觀察。這一舉措實屬無奈，匯率高企已經開始傷害瑞士經濟，而小國央行在維持本國匯率穩定上卻顯得十分的無奈與無力。巨額資金跨境流竄，既對個別國家的經濟帶來傷害，也對全球金融穩定構成威脅。
美國、歐洲、日本三大央行一起放水，製造出天量的流動性，然而它們的經濟乏善可陳，財政狀況嚴峻，銀行中介功能喪失，資金多流向海外。當債務危機襲來時，游資湧入避險天堂，屬正常的條件反射。除了黃金，瑞郎乃是避險的首選貨幣種類。於是瑞士法郎匯率飆升，出口產業陷入困境，經濟步向衰退。天堂的美譽，成為匯率的累贅、經濟的殺手。
其實瑞士國家銀行自2010年7月便開始干預市場，但是效果並不理想。瑞郎繼續攀升，外匯儲備出現虧損。瑞士央行去年總共錄得200億瑞郎的匯兌虧損，今年上半年再虧100億。虧損給瑞士央行帶來巨大的政治壓力。
瑞士國家銀行，是一家上市的股份公司，除了瑞士聯邦政府外，該國26個州政府也是主要股東，央行每年約20億瑞郎的分紅更是不少州政府的主要收入來源。央行在干預匯率上的敗退，令州政府的收入大減。迫於政治壓力，央行終止了干預匯率的計劃，瑞郎匯率扶搖直上。
至今年中，歐洲危機爆發，資金更猛烈地逃往瑞士法郎，超高的匯率令經濟衰退一觸即發，政治家們終於取得共識，不惜一切代價維護匯率穩定。新推出的聯繫匯率，似乎鎮住了市場的投機氣氛，不過能否扭轉經濟滑坡的局面尚未可知，長遠來看也可能觸發通貨膨脹。另外瑞士畢竟是一個小國，如果投機資金一起襲擊瑞士法郎，央行能否在不觸發大規模通膨的前提下，堅守住掛鉤機制目前也還是一個問號。
瑞士在1978年時，也曾有過一次與德國馬克掛鉤，起因與目前的情況頗為相似。當時也是大量資金湧入瑞士，匯率暴漲威脅到經濟的穩定。上次與馬克聯匯，穩定住了匯率，但是也造成國內流動性失控的後遺症，通膨持續惡化（1981年時達到7%）。
瑞士央行的舉措，筆者認為勢必揭啟新一輪貨幣競爭。可以想像，日本央行、新加坡央行、挪威央行、丹麥央行均承受著重大的壓力，會以不同的形式出手，抗衡熱錢襲來，制止本國貨幣的急漲，保護本國經濟。
巴西財長Guido Mantega，一直疾呼貨幣戰爭時代的到來。的確，瑞士的做法，令其他國家更有理由拒絕本國貨幣升值。這樣做會加大美歐經濟復甦的難度，國際政治局勢、貿易局勢更趨緊張。筆者相信，貨幣戰爭勢必導致貿易戰爭，全球貿易關係更趨緊張，更富爆炸性。
這一切的背後，是全球貨幣秩序的崩潰，貿易與資金自由流通與互利共贏的經濟理念成為了犧牲品。美歐日央行的貨幣政策失去了節制，流動性氾濫長期化、常態化。當經濟復甦舉步維艱時，各國便在匯率上打算盤，以以鄰為壑的方式，攫取更多的增長動力，哪怕犧牲其它國家的利益。盜取與反制、博弈與製裁，成了國際貨幣與貿易的新的政策行為模式，最後大家一齊成為輸家。
瑞士法郎不得不以與歐元掛鉤，來製衡熱錢湧入所帶來的對經濟的衝擊。這在某種程度上印證了中國人民幣匯率與美元掛鉤的做法，也許在危機中是一件好事。可憐的是馬來西亞，在亞洲金融危機中為求自保，將林吉特與美元掛鉤，遭到整個國際社會的口誅筆伐，外資因此卻步，生產技術的更新換代停頓不前，經濟至今尚未擺脫14年前的陰影。
貿易與資金自由流通，是當代主流經濟學的強烈主張，是華盛頓共識的支柱之一，也是西方大國對新興國家耳提面命般的教導。可是當自己遇到同樣艱難之時，那些“老師們”卻可以說一套，做另一套。
http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/jw!ek8_sO6eFRP40o.CuFM-/article?mid=9249&prev=9254&next=9248&l=a&fid=28
歐洲央行購黃金 黃金再現貨幣屬性
鉅亨網
歐洲各國央行逾20年來，首次成為黃金凈購買者，這是外匯和債務市場波動使得黃金市場發生革命性變化的最新跡象。
與全球黃金市場的規模相比，歐洲央行各國央行采購規模仍比較小，但這與他們過去大舉拋售黃金的風潮相比已經是一次重大的轉變。
本周在蒙特利爾召開的倫敦金銀市場協會年會上，中央銀行的黃金市場上的角色將成為辯論的中心議題。各國央行從大舉拋售轉為購買，今年迄今已經推動了黃金上漲了超過25%，本月早些時候黃金一度達到1920美元歷史記錄。歐洲各國央行發生這與的轉變之際，新興市場國家央行也在囤積黃金。
墨西哥、俄羅斯、韓國、泰國今年都曾大舉買入黃金，目的是降低對美元風險敞口。預期全球各國央行今年購入的黃金將超過布雷頓森林體系瓦解40年以來的任何一年。布雷頓森林體系瓦解后，美元便不再與黃金掛鉤。
從目前市場來看，黃金正在很大程度上正在回歸黃金被視為貨幣的時代。
歐洲央行和國際貨幣基金組織的數據顯示，今年迄今為主，歐洲各國央行的黃金儲備增加了2.5萬盎司
這與1999年以來年均合計出售的400噸的做法形成了鮮明對比。當時，歐洲各國央行將收益不高而且并不時髦的黃金儲備置換為主權債務。全球黃金消費每年在4500噸左右。
世界黃金協會8月份報告公布了全球的15大黃金持有者，中國以1161.6噸黃金持有量位居第七，價值約合676.5億美元，占外匯儲備比例的1.6%。
報告顯示，包括央行、國際機構、政府或地區在內的15大黃金持有者總持有量約為3.7萬噸，占全球黃金儲備約16.5%。其中，美國的黃金持有量為8965.6噸，依然是全球最大的黃金持有者，緊隨其后的是德國和國際貨幣基金組織，黃金持有量分別為3747.9噸、3101噸
http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/jw!ek8_sO6eFRP40o.CuFM-/article?mid=9230&prev=9231&l=a&fid=15
宋鴻兵經濟評論 19-21/9/2011
希臘問題 :
假如希臘離開歐元,她將重新獲得貨幣發行權,她可以自由貶值本幣,世界各國的遊客都將湧向那裡.設想一下,在希臘如果只花2000人民幣,就可以瀟灑地玩三五天,有多少人會去?為什麼一定要綁死在歐元上，被迫出售國有資產呢？貶值本幣同樣可以貶值國家債務，就像美國人一樣。重要的是，她將重新掌握自己的命運！
如果希臘人選擇了現在的生活方式，而且不准備改變，脫離歐元是最佳選擇。談妥條件，和平離婚。將國債從歐元重新換算成本幣，然後進行大幅貶值。國家不會破產，國債更不會違約。希臘的旅游資源優勢是天生的，才1100萬人口，比北京還少近一半，世界遊客養活他們根本不是問題。
美債:
每月發一次工資如果改為每年一次性發放工資總額，雖然並不改變一年的總收入，但將嚴重影響大家的購買力！債務期限也是一樣。短期債務將迫使政府預留部分資金，準備兌付債務，而長期債務將會釋放這些備付金，從而增加資金的現實購買力。儘管QE3沒有改變美元供應總量，但在短期內相當於增加了美元規模！
美債:
紙歐元將“死” 金歐元待生
9月6日，國際外匯黃金市場發生極為罕見的一幕。
http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/jw!ek8_sO6eFRP40o.CuFM-/article?mid=9214&next=8876&l=f&fid=39
這一天凌晨，歐元兌瑞郎瞬間從1.10升 值到1.2120，飆升10.1%；美元對瑞郎轉瞬從0.785上漲到0.861，大漲9.66%。要知道，在國際匯率市場，一天1%的漲跌都已算是大幅了，10%上下堪稱巨幅。
這緣於瑞士中央銀行6日清晨發表的聲明——瑞士法郎目前被過度高估，對瑞士經濟增長已構成嚴重威脅，並孕育通貨緊縮風險。未來瑞士央行將致力於瑞士法郎可持續的、大幅降低幣值。即日起，瑞士央行將“無法容忍”歐元與瑞士法郎的比價低於1.20，將全力維護這一最低比價並準備無限量購買外匯。
這一聲明並非突如其來。早在8月中旬，瑞士方面已經傳出對瑞郎不斷升值的不滿，並準備掛鉤歐元的信息。但當這個警告真的變成現實時，國際金融市場顯然還是“蒙”了。除了本能的反應——瑞郎對所有貨幣瞬間大幅貶值之外，市場關於該事件對國際金融市場中長期影響的讀解顯然是紊亂的。
這種混亂最集中反映在黃金市場上。9月6日 ，國際金價在創出每盎司1920美元的高價之後，31個小時快速下跌126美元，跌幅為6.56%；之後42個小時又上漲了91美元，漲5.07%；之後2小時又大跌了60美元，跌3.18%。
瑞郎掛鉤歐元也成為歐元兌美元的一個拐點時刻，歐元對美元加速下跌，由1.4265跌至1.3789，跌幅為3.36%。如果從8月30日 的1.4548算起，歐元對美元已經貶值了5.21%，從技術線上看，美元已經對歐元基本確定了中期上漲通道。
那麼，瑞郎掛鉤歐元到底對國際金融市場意味著什麼呢？這一事件對於國際貨幣體系的演變，尤其是美元與歐元的貨幣爭霸能產生什麼影響呢？
這一問題堪稱是當下國際金融界關注度最高的課題，也是挑戰難度係數最高的命題。
要回答這一問題，必須要與兩個相關消息相聯繫，即瑞郎掛鉤歐元並非孤立的事件。
一是7月8日 的消息。瑞士議會將於今年晚些時候討論創立與現行貨幣瑞士法郎平行的金法郎的可能性。雖然金法郎被提上日程，但立法的通過還需要瑞士修憲。如果該議案被駁回，則可能在2012年中期進行全民公決。如果被批准，得到許可的金融機構可以發行金法郎，但是會受到政府的嚴厲監管，以此來保障含金量和真實性。
二是歐洲議會的貨幣和經濟委員會已經在7月份提出議案允許黃金作為交易所和商業銀行的清算貨幣，其若被批准，新歐元掛鉤黃金的最後重大技術障礙就已經消除。
如果將這三個消息——瑞郎與歐元掛鉤、瑞士推金法郎、歐洲推動黃金作為清算貨幣——連接起來，人們就不難看出一個彈性金本位回歸的“三角結構”。如果這一進程按照正常時間表，在2012年內，或者說在未來一年內，人們有可能看到金法郎和金歐元的誕生。與此同時，人們有可能看到紙歐元的潰敗，即紙歐元“死”，金歐元生。
純信用紙幣歐元的潰敗已經進入倒計時了。歐洲各國的主權債務危機越演越烈，希臘、愛爾蘭、葡萄牙、西班牙、意大利等越來越多的國家捲入主權債務危機。簡言之，希臘債務危機已經無可救藥了。
按照現在紙歐元的客觀條件，希臘主權債務危機，乃至歐元區各國的主權債危機已經幾乎無法拯救了。歐盟的7000億歐元的拯救資金已經不夠用了；各國財政統一的遠水解不了近渴；發行歐洲央行債券又被德國否決，接下來，從希臘開始，越來越多的歐洲國家主權債崩盤已難以避免。
歐洲是不是已經山窮水盡了呢？未必。因為這些陷入主權債務危機的國家，其央行均擁有較多的黃金，希臘112.2噸，西班牙281.6噸，葡萄牙382.5噸，意大利2451.8噸，分別佔外匯儲備的76%、37.1%、82.2%、67% (2010年6月數字)。歐洲各國央行的總黃金儲備是1.1萬噸。而美聯儲的黃金儲備名義值是8133噸，但俄羅斯總理普京懷疑這些黃金中的大部分已經失踪。
早在兩年前，筆者就曾指出，當歐元與美元決戰到最後時刻，即歐元在美元攻擊之下，作為純信用紙幣無以為繼時(表現為歐元區主權債購買力大幅貶值，甚至歸零)，歐盟宣布發行新歐元，與黃金掛鉤，則新歐元立刻將成為全球最堅挺的貨幣；與此同時，同為純信用紙幣的美元將會崩潰，因為美國沒有足夠的黃金與近100萬億美元的美元債券證券以及約600萬億美元的金融衍生品掛鉤。美國要么被動實施金本位，要么美元退回僅在美國范圍內使用。
其實，瑞郎掛鉤歐元是這一進程中新的一步，換言之，美元對紙歐元進攻得越犀利，則越將轉化為金歐元的推動力；紙歐元越接近於崩潰，則金歐元越接近於正式推出。
對於美國而言，這就陷入兩難：如果加速擊潰紙歐元，則金歐元誕生，紙美元將崩潰；如果不攻擊紙歐元，其分流美元的流動性，美國國債出售的難度更大，量化寬鬆3.0的規模會更大，會威脅市場對紙美元的信心。
美國最新採取的舉措均無法扭轉上述趨勢。9月9日 ，美國總統奧巴馬公佈了總額4470億美元的就業刺激計劃，其內容包括將工人和小企業業主所需支付的工資稅削減一半、在基礎設施建設領域進行支出、向地方政府提供補助金以避免其裁減教師人數等。其作用是延緩美國社會動盪爆發的時間，其政治目的遠大於經濟金融目的。至於美國未來10年消減1萬億美元的財政赤字，那更是杯水車薪。
就新歐元掛鉤黃金的大趨勢而言，已經很難看到什麼阻擋的力量，除非歐洲核心國家出現社會大動盪，其主動退出或解散歐盟，此外就是美國和歐洲由貨幣競爭升級為軍事競爭。然而，這兩者出現的概率都不大。
如果未來12～16個月中，瑞郎、歐元先後掛鉤黃金，標誌著彈性金本位的回歸，則意味著美國國債、歐元國債大幅貶值，貶值幅度可能高達80%～90%，甚至歸零，則中國外匯儲備將蒙受巨大損失。即未來12個月，有可能是中國外匯儲備亡羊補牢的最後時機。
從這個戰略高度來解讀瑞郎掛鉤歐元，不是紙瑞郎，不是紙歐元，也不是紙美元，而是黃金的重大戰略利好。儘管短期有利於紙美元打擊紙歐元，美元勢力可以趁勢打壓黃金，黃金有可能出現一波較大調整，但就6～18個月中期而言，是對黃金的重大戰略利好，即金價在未來6～18個月內，有可能上漲到3000～5000美元/盎司。
http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/jw!ek8_sO6eFRP40o.CuFM-/article?mid=9214&next=8876&l=f&fid=39
2011年9月21日 星期三
"Game Of Cat And Mouse" - Charting The Progression Of The European Solvency Crisis
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/charting-progression-european-solvency-crisis
"Because it is not a liquidity crisis, it is a solvency crisis." The chart shows nothing new but present the evolution of the European solvency crisis crisply and succinctly for anyone who may be lost in the day to day headline shuffle and confuse the forest for the trees.
"Because it is not a liquidity crisis, it is a solvency crisis." The chart shows nothing new but present the evolution of the European solvency crisis crisply and succinctly for anyone who may be lost in the day to day headline shuffle and confuse the forest for the trees.
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