宏觀世界的經濟及歐美債務的問題, 個人感到對於一般打工仔和中產階層而言, 未來數年的投資策略應該是進取的防守, 只要守得往不損失資產的價值, 便可以成為相對少數的勝利者。
但是如若是有錢人, 或你想成為有財務自由的富人, 就必須要有能力在未來的數年使資產的價值增加, 才可以成為真正的少數勝利者。
2012年6月27日 星期三
2011年9月26日 星期一
Smart money knows the stock market is finished. Get prepared!"- BBC News
重點在2:10"後, 粗略之意思如下:
1. 經濟危機就像CANCER一樣, 它只會不斷增長, 要快做好準備......
2. 不要妄想(美國)政府能解決任何問題, 統治世界的不是美國政府, 而是「高盛」!!
3. 投資者首要學的是如何在跌市時能保護資產的價值。
4. 現在只是開始, 投資者要準快立即行動, 迎戰面前至少維持12個月的股市/貨幣危機。
H按與P按之風險，
以防萬一, 各位上左車的朋友要小心做好風險準備啦!
在過去幾年，香港人新做按揭，大多數是採用H按，而將物業轉按者，亦棄P按用H按，但是大家不明白H按風險，若果現在樓市經歷2008年情況，樓市急速下跌的機會是非常之大。
匯豐在按揭利息上調，而王冬勝先生亦說，新做按揭以P按為主，亦可以說這是撥亂反正。我個人認為，H按所負擔風險，危機尚未解除，一定要將H按市場佔有率降低至50%以下，而採用H按的人士完全明白其風險，亦有能力負擔其風險，這時，H按所隱藏的風險才可以說是解除。
一個置業人士若果採用H按，該項貸款便不屬於個人置業貸款，而是屬於商業貸款，但銀行從業員很多時為爭取生意，並沒有清楚解釋當中分別。這樣說﹕「若果按揭人採用P按，他只要在未來歲月裡根據按揭合約所訂的分期付款辦法，依期還款，銀行是不會採取任何行動，要求提早還款或者增加抵押品。所以，採取該類按揭的人士只需謹記一件事，就是「準時還款」，大致上可以安枕無憂」。
若果採取H按，主動權便不是在按揭人手裡，就算他們能夠準時還款，但如果物業市場急速下滑，銀行便可以根據貸款合約中所釐訂的條款，要求貸款人償還部份貸款，以符合金管要求的資產，負債比率。所以，樓市下挫，便會有人被要求償還部份貸款，若果按揭人未能償還，唯有將物業出售，或者任由物業變成銀主盤，由銀行處理。如是者，一浪低於一浪，做成骨牌效應。
還款主動權亦未必會在銀行手裡，根據貸款合約，抵押物業每年要做一個物業估值報告，若果物業價值沒有大幅下降，銀行與貸款人相安無事，但如果物業價值在估價時被大幅低估，銀行在別無他法下一定要向貸款人追討一部份貸款，俗稱「差額」，用以符合資產負債比率，若貸款人未有能力償還貸款，一樣要出售該物業或者任由該物業變成銀主盤。
換句話說，真正的主動權是在測量師手裡，他們的估價報告可以左右樓市走勢，若果他們如2008年一樣，有默契地將樓價估值大幅下調，而現在採用H按的人士，未必能夠像2008年的專業投資者，早已準備足夠儲備度過難關。這樣，樓市不大「冧」幾希矣。
當日，銀行為了多做金融產品生意，向有物業的人士借出款項購買金融產品，由於銀行從金融產品所得利潤是相當高，故此不介意將按揭息口降低，並且以同業拆息為基準。這樣，同業拆息按揭H按便氾濫，每一個人申請按揭貸款都會採用H按，他們實在不知其中會涉及的風險，就算向他們推介的銀行職員亦未必知曉，可幸未釀成大災害。唯今之計，是將H按的人推回P按，既然現在兩種利息分別不大，新做按揭的人士亦不會介意採用P按。而已做按揭的人士，由於物業有相當升幅，資產負債比率亦處於一個安全水平，就算樓市下滑，測量師大幅減低樓價估值，暫時來說，樓市仍然是安全。不過，採用H按的人一定要有一些資金，用以應付銀行他日追收差額的要求，又或者，索性將H按轉往P按，一了百了。
http://hk.realestate.yahoo.com/column_content.html?author=PHK_TML&com&id=14420
在過去幾年，香港人新做按揭，大多數是採用H按，而將物業轉按者，亦棄P按用H按，但是大家不明白H按風險，若果現在樓市經歷2008年情況，樓市急速下跌的機會是非常之大。
匯豐在按揭利息上調，而王冬勝先生亦說，新做按揭以P按為主，亦可以說這是撥亂反正。我個人認為，H按所負擔風險，危機尚未解除，一定要將H按市場佔有率降低至50%以下，而採用H按的人士完全明白其風險，亦有能力負擔其風險，這時，H按所隱藏的風險才可以說是解除。
一個置業人士若果採用H按，該項貸款便不屬於個人置業貸款，而是屬於商業貸款，但銀行從業員很多時為爭取生意，並沒有清楚解釋當中分別。這樣說﹕「若果按揭人採用P按，他只要在未來歲月裡根據按揭合約所訂的分期付款辦法，依期還款，銀行是不會採取任何行動，要求提早還款或者增加抵押品。所以，採取該類按揭的人士只需謹記一件事，就是「準時還款」，大致上可以安枕無憂」。
若果採取H按，主動權便不是在按揭人手裡，就算他們能夠準時還款，但如果物業市場急速下滑，銀行便可以根據貸款合約中所釐訂的條款，要求貸款人償還部份貸款，以符合金管要求的資產，負債比率。所以，樓市下挫，便會有人被要求償還部份貸款，若果按揭人未能償還，唯有將物業出售，或者任由物業變成銀主盤，由銀行處理。如是者，一浪低於一浪，做成骨牌效應。
還款主動權亦未必會在銀行手裡，根據貸款合約，抵押物業每年要做一個物業估值報告，若果物業價值沒有大幅下降，銀行與貸款人相安無事，但如果物業價值在估價時被大幅低估，銀行在別無他法下一定要向貸款人追討一部份貸款，俗稱「差額」，用以符合資產負債比率，若貸款人未有能力償還貸款，一樣要出售該物業或者任由該物業變成銀主盤。
換句話說，真正的主動權是在測量師手裡，他們的估價報告可以左右樓市走勢，若果他們如2008年一樣，有默契地將樓價估值大幅下調，而現在採用H按的人士，未必能夠像2008年的專業投資者，早已準備足夠儲備度過難關。這樣，樓市不大「冧」幾希矣。
當日，銀行為了多做金融產品生意，向有物業的人士借出款項購買金融產品，由於銀行從金融產品所得利潤是相當高，故此不介意將按揭息口降低，並且以同業拆息為基準。這樣，同業拆息按揭H按便氾濫，每一個人申請按揭貸款都會採用H按，他們實在不知其中會涉及的風險，就算向他們推介的銀行職員亦未必知曉，可幸未釀成大災害。唯今之計，是將H按的人推回P按，既然現在兩種利息分別不大，新做按揭的人士亦不會介意採用P按。而已做按揭的人士，由於物業有相當升幅，資產負債比率亦處於一個安全水平，就算樓市下滑，測量師大幅減低樓價估值，暫時來說，樓市仍然是安全。不過，採用H按的人一定要有一些資金，用以應付銀行他日追收差額的要求，又或者，索性將H按轉往P按，一了百了。
http://hk.realestate.yahoo.com/column_content.html?author=PHK_TML&com&id=14420
2011年9月25日 星期日
Post Analysis of the 2011 Silver Crash
FutureMoneyTrends.com would like to start off by saying that we whole heartily believe that SILVER will be one of the best investments of our lifetimes, if not human history. Since we first made this statement, silver is up 100% even after last week's crash. For those of you that are new to silver or for those that think we are exaggerating, PLEASE before going any further, watch this video that we made December 31, 2010. It will take you less than 7 minutes and it will make you more knowledgeable about silver than 99.9% of all investors.
Silver This Decade
We wanted everyone to watch this video so that when it comes to knowing the long term fundamentals for silver, we are all on the same page. With that said, take some time to analyze the current silver market.
200 Day Moving Average
Silver is now the furthest from its 200 day moving average since November of 2008. Remember the timing of 2008, most investors thought it was the end of the world and were liquidating everything. Silver itself was also almost exclusively looked at as an industrial metal and therefore was sold off due to a slowing economy. Today, silver has been restored as a monetary metal for many investors, so you have to consider the biggest difference between 2008 and 2011, and that is that we are moving into a currency crisis, not just a slow down in global economies. Now when it comes to the 200 day moving average, throughout the current bull market any time silver has moved below 0.95x the 200 day moving average, tremendous gains have followed. Silver is currently around 0.86x its 200 day moving average. -Very Bullish-
2008 Post Traumatic Stress
Many in the investment community, including silver bugs, took a lashing in 2008. So, in order to prevent a repeat of 2008, many are causing that exact scenario to play out. No doubt this makes the Federal Reserve very happy to see commodities take a hit. Forced liquidation selling from stock market and commodity investors have put extreme pressure on previous winners like silver. With all assets falling together, investors have been forced to raise cash to cover margin calls. Silver, being one of the biggest winners in the past year, was the first one to sell for many as it is very liquid and many fear another 2008 when silver collapsed over 50%. Of course this put extreme selling pressure on silver last Friday when we saw the biggest one day dive insilver since 1984.
The Federal Reserve Head Fake
The market has been pricing in QE3 since mid July, not getting it at the end of August was shrugged off with rallies that they would get it at the end of September, not getting it then caused a sell-off. Silver and gold of course were seen as the biggest winners for a QE3 announcement, so when it didn't happen, investor panic set in as many felt that gold specifically was overpriced. In the west where the precious metals are seen as speculative commodities, it was easy to see how investors could easily become spooked. Remember, silver was around $25 per ounce when QE2 started, so the anticipation from investors that silver would blow through $50 an ounce once QE3 was official, was very high. We should note that we have no doubt that QE3 will start soon, but as we have said all along, the Federal Reserve needs a crisis before it can unleash its next dose of money printing.
CME Raised Margin Requirements
As we said on Friday (minutes after the news came out), "no doubt that this was leaked" and added to the silver sell off. On Friday after the close, the CME hiked gold margins by 21%, silver by 16%, and copper by 18%
By raising margin requirements, expectations added to the selling pressure by not only investors who needed to liquidate positions as a result, but those investors who feared another crash in the silver price.
Other Important Points to Remember
- Since the peak in the housing bubble in 2006, this is the 19th time silver has seen double digit declines over two trading days.
- Silver is oversold, The Relative Strength Index is at 23, which typically means that silver is about to bounce higher from here.
- The historical gold to silver ratio of 16 to 1 is still at an extreme of 52 to 1.
- The long term fundamentals for silver, as shown in our 'Silver This Decade Video,' are still in place.
- Europe and the U.S. are both about to push the currency war of devaluation to new extremes.
- Physical silver is trading between 33-36 just for regular bullion ounces.
Is Silver Cheap?
In the big picture, silver is cheap, the above ground available supply has fallen 90% in the past 60 years. In our opinion, at some point in this decade the headline 'Silver Shortage' will be seen in national news stories.
In the very near future, the indicators we pointed above show a silver price that should at least stabilize if not bounce back up to support above $33. However, with central planners and constant manipulation in the silver markets, it is always possible for silver to go down even more. If that happened, $33 support could end up being resistance, with the $26 mark being the next major level of support from here. If you don't own any silver, this is a great opportunity and if you already own, you might want to take a wait and see approach in order to see how the next trading day plays out.
*Disclosure: FutureMoneyTrends.com staff members own physical silver and mining companies. On Friday (minutes before the close), one of our staff members purchased $30 SLV OPTION NOV. CALLS that he plans to close out sometime this week.
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2011年9月21日 星期三
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